It's always dangerous to make predictions about the economy -- especially when the news seems bleak. Some people blow a gasket if anyone dares mention not only that things have been much worse than they are right now -- but also that conditions might improve before too long. Just ask economist Phil Gramm -- a former senator and a former VIP in John McCain's campaign.

Still, economic success most often accrues to those who jump in and bet on American prosperity and ingenuity when the prospects seem darkest -- and asset prices are cheap. Don Hays, the former Richmonder who runs the Hays Advisory Group in Nashville, recently explored the history of big bank bailouts since the Nixon administration. He found that government rescue efforts -- an indication of public (and political) panic -- almost invariably occur as the stock market nears a bottom.

With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tottering -- at least in the minds of investors -- the government stepped in to calm some nerves. And the FDIC took control of IndyMac, a California bank that was basically talked to death by New York Sen. Chuck Schumer.

"We've . . . been here before. The lender of last resort finally has to step in and put their big pocketbook up as a wall against the lack of confidence," Hays wrote recently. "It is encouraging to see that this 'magic' has worked in the past, despite in every case the skeptics telling us this was just the first domino to fall. That is why psychology always leads. It takes intense fear to bring out the fire trucks, and this market has indeed been showing very classic fear, and the fire trucks this morning are on the scene with all their resources."

Hays -- who was a rocket scientist before jumping into the investment game nearly four decades ago -- isn't predicting an instant revival in stocks or economic growth. But he is offering a valuable reminder that, in the American experience, extreme pessimism almost always offers opportunities for those willing to buck the trend. These pages are not in the business of forecasting the stock market or the economy. But we thought readers might appreciate a contrarian point of view -- and a chance to ponder at least the possibility of sunnier economic times ahead.